VICTORY FOR THE STRONGER TEAM BY A BIG SCORE
The eternal classic, the favourites go into the first game with the sole aim of destroying their opponents, because there is so much else to do in the European competitions or national championships. Take, for example, the club that won the first game 6-0. Suppose it was at home to the favourites. The squad is strong, there are enough opportunities, so the leader goes to the second game in a good mood and no desire to put his best players on the field at all. The bookmakers are confident that the favourite will not lose, which is why the odds on it are quite low, which is good for bettors, who can play with a plus side. There are several reasons for this:
- The favourite needs to concede 7 goals from the opponent, which is unacceptable even with the youth squad on the field and in history such cases have been as high as 5-8;
- The leader will not give their best, and the coach will give the reserves a chance to prove themselves;
- The loser of the first leg will be playing at home, with no chance of getting out, but a chance to prove themselves to the fans by slamming the door shut at the end.
Alternatively, the leader could win, but minimally. With such gaps in the score, bookmakers usually give good odds on the plus side. You can also try the “Team will not lose + TB/TM1.5” or “Win+Draw”: 1X, 2X. On the basis of the statistics of the previous games it is possible to decide on the totals.
As a rule, the option of betting on the return matches is appropriate when the score of the first confrontation is 4-0 or more. 3-0 is a classic rout that adds confidence, but is not considered a direct pass to the next stage. Such a win does not give an unqualified advantage, but is considered a good result, allowing the favourite to relax a bit. If the difference in class between the teams is significant, it can be 3-0 or even more in the return leg.
It’s important to understand that the stadium factor also plays a role. If you win 5-0 away, you don’t want to lose at home because you make the fans angry and it reduces your profits, popularity and other negative elements. There has to be at least a draw, but not all fans will forgive that either. In such a case it is better not to take a plus handicap on the underdog, but to consider the option of TM. The favourite team must save its strength, that’s why the tactics will most probably be defensive with counterattacks.
The most disliked moment for any football fan is when two teams prefer to play on defense. For bettors, it’s easy: Place a bet on a TM or similar and enjoy the winnings. In the case of return games, it can be the other way round. For example, in the first match the score was 0-0. The second game may go to goal or overtime – there is no other option. So all that remains is to analyze the stats, read the news and figure out which line-ups will appear on the field.
How can a dry game between teams with defensive tactics prove dangerous? After a 0-0, one of the clubs could shoot out and win by a big score. Or both teams might score a lot. On the other hand, betting on a draw in a game of clubs that prefer to play defensively is almost a must have and well done. As for the totals, handicaps etc. you have to check the odds or carefully analyse the previous matches.
FAVOURITES VS FAVOURITES
A fiery mixture, which offers very different results. Many will remember Barcelona’s cambique against PSG and the poor follow-up against Juventus. In this case, the theory of the first situation is confirmed. When a club wins 4-0 or more, you can bet on the loser of the first game with a handicap and get a 100% lead in the return game. On Barcelona with a handicap (+1.5) the odds were around 1.6-1.8, and (+1) for 2 and above. As you can see, the team exceeded the handicap with more than enough.
In the Champions League season 2020/2021, the situation in the match “Barcelona” – PSG went in a similar style – the first match ended 1-4, but in the return match there was no sensation and the teams made a draw 1-1. Again in this case would go plus or zero handicap on any team or specifically on “Barcelona”.
As you can see, there are definitely betting prospects for the return matches. However, it is worth keeping to the usual course: strategy + meticulous analysis + reading the news and any useful information. To set as a rule, or as a winning formula, the following principle: “plus handicap if the first match ended 4-0 or more” is not worth it. Football is considered to be so versatile that the usual magic of statistics and its effect on matches is unproven. Well, there can be as many coincidences as you like.