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Ready to quit your day job and become a full-time trader? This week, the pair was corrected upwards, and now it is trading around 1. Today’s UK May Manufacturing PMI, which rose for the first time in five months from 53. However, in case of strong data US Employment Market release, the British currency can weaken. Unemployment Rate is expected to say at 3. Average Hourly Earnings can increase from 2. Investors are focused on Brexit negotiations and the new EU-US trade conflict.
This week a meeting of the representatives of the British government and large European companies, including BP, BMW, Nestle, and Vodafone, was held. European business can significantly reduce investment if the UK did not clarify its requirements for Brexit. On Thursday, it became known that the US will imply European metals import tax since June 1. The dynamic depends on US employment market releases. If they do not meet the expectations, the price may rise to the midline of Bollinger bands around 1.
Otherwise, the downward movement can resume to 1. MACD decreases in the negative zone, Stochastic is directed upwards. Long positions can be opened from the level of 1. 3350 with the target at 1.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1. 3280 with the targets at 1. The Australian dollar against the US one moved to the consolidation stage after a significant fall in late April-early May. Now, the instrument is in the range of 0. The trading is quiet in view of the lack of key releases in Australia and the US, as well as a decline in demand for the overbought USD. In the second half of the week, the trading fluctuations do not exceed 50 points awaiting the key releases from the US.
Today, the main catalyst will be the US data on the change in the number of Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. The growth of Nonfarm Payrolls for May is expected to 189K. Such an increase may indicate an acceleration in the US economic growth in Q2, which will definitely give significant support to USD. On the other hand, these forecasts are already included in the price and, if the growth of the indicator is less significant than last month, the USD may fall.
Technically, one can see the preservation of a downtrend in the medium term. Technical indicators confirm the main fall outlook: on W1, MACD indicates the preservation of the high volume of short positions, Bollinger Bands are pointing downwards. In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 0. The traders are waiting for today’s US employment market data and do not open large positions. Unemployment Rate is expected to stay at the level of 3. Nonfarm Payrolls will grow from 164K to 188K, which can strengthen the positions of USD and let the instrument fall.
ADP indicator, which increased from 163K to 178K, reflects that Nonfarm Payrolls will be positive. Otherwise, poor employment market data will support the pair. Technical indicators reflect that the market is calm, as the price is moving sideways. MACD volumes are slowly declining in the positive zone, reflecting the growing influence of sellers.